Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 96199.290030 101408.557295 106613.565635 112201.079446 118025.877531 123915.472802 130317.140350
2025-09-14 87945.145717 95940.723519 104149.254176 113195.679065 122874.936401 132909.971370 144089.485937
2025-09-21 81493.807238 91360.969974 101710.463223 113353.510450 126064.766503 139498.711627 154747.422471
2025-09-28 76502.822538 87759.214723 99780.025923 113536.650710 128807.197747 145201.406427 164095.112272
2025-10-05 73522.290805 86025.237280 99584.687777 115329.843397 133055.202804 152337.537282 174843.264307
2025-10-12 70834.036481 84375.096645 99265.700435 116783.524042 136752.692343 158730.879938 184670.915931
2025-10-19 68096.585071 82474.541947 98490.270184 117559.570291 139547.998870 164007.501615 193169.978603
2025-10-26 65299.422829 80341.094315 97300.811284 117723.135795 141525.143038 168265.124830 200446.649866
2025-11-02 62960.461978 78615.247352 96467.853088 118192.235870 143764.097561 172755.553647 207948.270843
2025-11-09 60565.026968 76707.638033 95318.570706 118194.318291 145376.940486 176462.216887 214504.672737
2025-11-16 59021.376093 75741.282740 95212.589411 119367.358910 148318.470304 181687.694630 222827.460472
2025-11-23 56916.110318 74006.318027 94109.613406 119277.777163 149702.227697 185042.881757 228930.117567
2025-11-30 55751.838007 73396.652548 94349.167478 120806.441259 153045.102982 190764.366439 237921.200923
2025-12-07 54388.407226 72488.082330 94182.532590 121809.377542 155737.829496 195715.736171 246025.311245
2025-12-14 52688.453506 71095.115306 93364.993765 121964.963847 157362.975897 199365.583972 252566.772245
2025-12-21 51110.092966 69798.234634 92614.809783 122156.717701 158995.536454 203002.461997 259088.998789
2025-12-28 50443.925723 69633.914582 93254.196109 124059.756722 162730.923161 209202.498941 268755.520949
2026-01-04 49653.437782 69275.699360 93622.228810 125602.601427 166011.299832 214854.155858 277781.082640
2026-01-11 48580.488906 68511.792030 93442.425667 126426.204784 168376.292528 219378.059774 285437.402555
2026-01-18 47273.204850 67398.436346 92778.067837 126599.785870 169899.102151 222848.746420 291796.993117
2026-01-25 46171.434303 66521.959761 92387.941327 127097.614241 171813.384552 226799.404735 298762.314357
2026-02-01 44910.310940 65394.730787 91637.811274 127099.823802 173073.010588 229919.660508 304693.851039
2026-02-08 44225.773372 65021.438537 91855.202497 128344.613816 175918.677129 235038.977388 313156.598248